Introduction
The U.S. Space Force has announced ambitious plans for national security launches in 2025, projecting that the United Launch Alliance's (ULA) Vulcan rocket will surpass SpaceX in the number of missions. This forecast, discussed by Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen during the Space Mobility Conference on January 28, 2025, indicates a significant shift in the landscape of military space launches, with ULA expected to conduct 11 missions compared to SpaceX's seven, contingent on the Vulcan rocket receiving final certification.
Projected Launch Schedule
The outlined schedule aims to compensate for delays experienced in the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, which only completed five missions in 2024. ULA's Vulcan rocket is central to the NSSL Phase 2 initiative, having been selected as the primary provider for military launches through 2027. However, the rocket's certification is still pending, with expectations set for late February following its second demonstration flight, which took place in October 2024.
Current Status of Vulcan and SpaceX
Despite ULA's plans to ramp up Vulcan's operational flights, SpaceX has maintained a strong foothold in the commercial launch sector, even taking on additional national security missions that were initially assigned to Vulcan. This trend underscores the Space Force's increasing dependence on SpaceX's Falcon rockets for essential military space access. Col. Jim Horne, responsible for overseeing launch execution for the Space Force, noted that Vulcan's second test flight was successful, despite an anomaly with one of its solid rocket boosters. An investigation is underway, but officials do not anticipate this issue will impede the certification process.
Certification Process Explained
Col. Horne explained that the path to certification for the Vulcan rocket is multifaceted and encompasses a thorough evaluation of various factors, including engineering, manufacturing, quality control, and sustainment processes. He indicated that the first NSSL mission for Vulcan could potentially occur by spring 2025, marking a critical milestone for ULA and the Space Force.
Blue Origin's New Glenn Rocket
In addition to ULA and SpaceX, Blue Origin is also vying for a place in the national security launch market with its New Glenn rocket. The rocket successfully completed its inaugural flight on January 16, 2025, achieving its intended orbit. Although the first stage was not recovered as planned, Brig. Gen. Panzenhagen clarified that recovery is not a requirement for NSSL eligibility. The primary measure of success for national security missions is the successful delivery of payloads. New Glenn's recent flight positions it to compete for the less complex Lane 1 of the NSSL Phase 3 program, with the possibility of a second successful flight being necessary for qualification for more complex Lane 2 missions.
Conclusion
The Space Force's projections for 2025 highlight a competitive landscape in the realm of national security launches, with ULA's Vulcan rocket poised to take a leading role, provided it achieves certification. The ongoing developments with SpaceX and Blue Origin further illustrate the dynamic nature of the military space launch sector, as each company navigates the challenges of certification and operational readiness. This situation reflects broader trends in the growing reliance on commercial space capabilities for national security, indicating a pivotal moment for the U.S. military's approach to space operations.